Pre-tourney Rankings
UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.0#263
Expected Predictive Rating-7.4#282
Pace72.5#87
Improvement-1.2#238

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#151
First Shot-1.6#234
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#25
Layup/Dunks-2.6#273
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#255
Freethrows+1.0#105
Improvement-1.5#260

Defense
Total Defense-6.8#334
First Shot-6.1#330
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#255
Layups/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#232
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#340
Freethrows+0.2#167
Improvement+0.4#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.0 - 1.00.0 - 1.0
Quad 1b0.0 - 1.00.0 - 2.0
Quad 20.0 - 7.00.0 - 9.0
Quad 31.0 - 9.01.0 - 18.0
Quad 48.0 - 5.09.0 - 23.0


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 196   @ Campbell L 93-97 OT 26%     0 - 1 -3.4 +4.0 -6.8
  Nov 09, 2018 103   Stanford L 59-72 23%     0 - 2 -11.1 -11.6 +0.7
  Nov 13, 2018 97   UNC Greensboro L 61-82 21%     0 - 3 -18.6 -9.8 -8.6
  Nov 23, 2018 248   Arkansas St. W 78-64 47%     1 - 3 +8.7 +0.6 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2018 183   Gardner-Webb L 72-81 33%     1 - 4 -10.4 -6.3 -3.9
  Nov 25, 2018 313   Eastern Illinois W 82-65 63%     2 - 4 +7.7 +9.6 -0.6
  Nov 27, 2018 261   East Carolina W 95-86 60%     3 - 4 +0.4 +7.5 -8.2
  Dec 01, 2018 86   Davidson L 85-91 19%     3 - 5 -2.9 +14.3 -17.2
  Dec 05, 2018 4   @ North Carolina L 69-97 1%     3 - 6 -3.7 -5.0 +6.3
  Dec 15, 2018 61   @ Furman L 50-93 7%     3 - 7 -32.2 -14.9 -18.7
  Dec 19, 2018 116   @ Georgia St. L 71-86 12%     3 - 8 -8.3 +2.5 -11.2
  Dec 21, 2018 203   @ Mercer L 73-77 28%     3 - 9 -3.8 +0.7 -4.5
  Dec 29, 2018 126   College of Charleston L 66-73 27%     3 - 10 0 - 1 -6.7 -0.2 -7.3
  Jan 03, 2019 267   @ James Madison W 86-83 2OT 40%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -0.5 +5.2 -5.9
  Jan 05, 2019 276   @ Towson W 67-61 42%     5 - 10 2 - 1 +2.1 -2.9 +5.5
  Jan 10, 2019 254   Delaware L 69-82 59%     5 - 11 2 - 2 -21.2 -3.6 -19.0
  Jan 12, 2019 247   Drexel W 97-83 58%     6 - 11 3 - 2 +6.0 +9.3 -4.4
  Jan 17, 2019 105   @ Hofstra L 72-87 11%     6 - 12 3 - 3 -7.6 +0.4 -8.7
  Jan 19, 2019 83   @ Northeastern L 71-88 9%     6 - 13 3 - 4 -8.3 +2.8 -11.6
  Jan 24, 2019 209   William & Mary W 93-88 48%     7 - 13 4 - 4 -0.4 +12.8 -13.4
  Jan 26, 2019 298   Elon L 82-89 68%     7 - 14 4 - 5 -17.9 -2.0 -15.4
  Jan 31, 2019 276   Towson L 76-77 63%     7 - 15 4 - 6 -10.4 +4.7 -15.2
  Feb 02, 2019 267   James Madison L 95-104 62%     7 - 16 4 - 7 -18.0 +10.0 -27.4
  Feb 07, 2019 247   @ Drexel L 57-69 36%     7 - 17 4 - 8 -14.4 -16.2 +0.9
  Feb 09, 2019 254   @ Delaware L 66-70 37%     7 - 18 4 - 9 -6.7 -5.1 -1.9
  Feb 14, 2019 83   Northeastern L 77-81 19%     7 - 19 4 - 10 -0.8 +4.6 -5.5
  Feb 16, 2019 105   Hofstra W 87-79 23%     8 - 19 5 - 10 +9.8 +7.0 +2.6
  Feb 21, 2019 298   @ Elon L 77-84 47%     8 - 20 5 - 11 -12.3 -3.2 -8.8
  Feb 23, 2019 209   @ William & Mary L 63-71 28%     8 - 21 5 - 12 -7.9 -12.6 +4.9
  Mar 02, 2019 126   @ College of Charleston L 61-70 14%     8 - 22 5 - 13 -3.1 -9.0 +5.7
  Mar 09, 2019 298   Elon W 93-86 58%     9 - 22 -1.1 +10.3 -11.8
  Mar 10, 2019 83   Northeastern L 59-80 13%     9 - 23 -15.1 -9.0 -7.4
Projected Record 9.0 - 23.0 5.0 - 13.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 100.0 100.0 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13 100.0% 100.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%